Monthly Market Report

January 2025

Despite a slight decline in property prices by 0.57%, the first since mid 2022, the market recorded its strongest January ever in terms of transactions, with 14,413 sales, underscoring a shift towards stabilization after years of rapid expansion. Off-plan properties remained highly popular, accounting for a significant portion of transactions, while overseas buyers continued to drive high-end sales, highlighting Dubai’s enduring appeal as a global investment hub

Snapshot

Dubai’s current market cycle has now extended to 51 months, marking over four years of sustained price growth. During this period, monthly appreciation has averaged 1.19%, though price growth has shown clear signs of deceleration in recent months. After peaking in August 2024 with a 2.48% increase, monthly gains steadily moderated, dropping to just 0.48% in November and 0.88% in December, before turning negative in January 2025. This slowdown suggests the market may be approaching a plateau, with further price growth facing headwinds due to affordability constraints, particularly in the ready market. While demand remains strong, the trend indicates a shifting landscape where buyers may become more price-sensitive, and sustained appreciation could be increasingly difficult to maintain.

-0.57%

Dynamic Price Index Monthly Change

AED 1,484/ sqft

Dynamic Price Index Current Property Price

14,413

Number of Monthly Transactions

AED 425M

Highest Recorded Sale

AED 425M

Lowest Recorded Sale

Source : Property Monitor

Median prices in January

Apartments

AED 1,350,000

Townhouses

AED 2,671,000

Villas

AED 6,915,888

DYNAMIC PRICE INDEX

At an emirate-wide level, the index value for January 2025 decreased by 1.19 index points to 207.26 from 208.45 in December 2024, representing a month-on-month decrease of 0.57%.

In January 2025, property prices declined slightly and now stand at AED 1,484 per sq ft. This is now 89.14% above the market trough of April 2009 and 20.33% above the market peak of September 2014. Absent any significant economic, geopolitical, or unforeseen global events, current market conditions are expected to support continued growth throughout 2025. However, the pace is likely to slow, with price movements becoming more volatile, fluctuating between minor increases and decreases on a month-to-month basis.

On a year-on-year basis, prices have increased by 15.64% in January and now marks 47 straight months of year-on-year increases, while on a year-to-date basis, prices have decreased by 0.57% in January 2025 compared to an increase of 0.19% in January 2024.

MoM Change

-0.57%

QoQ Change

+0.79%

YoY Change

+15.64%

Price Per Sq Ft

AED 1,484

Source : Property Monitor

Historical Transactions

Completion Status

Sales transaction volumes in January amounted to 14,413, decreasing by 4.6% compared to December 2024. During the month, the split between Oqood and Title Deed property transactions was weighted in favour of the former, with Oqood registrations accounting for 52.4% of all transactions, down by 8.3% month-on-month. After adjusting for registration technicalities where several off-plan villa and townhouse transactions are shown as Title Deed, the true breakdown of market share is further bolstered to 67.6% in favour of properties under construction having been sold off-plan.

Emaar Properties claimed the top spot in the off-plan market with the bulk of developers’ off-plan registrations claiming a market share of 16.5%. They recorded 1,263 transactions spread across a myriad of their projects, most notably Terra Heights in Expo City where 480 sales were recorded. This was followed by Farm Grove 1 in the Valley, and then Marina Place 1 and Marina Place 2 in Mina Rashid Yachts and Marina with 153, 80, and 75 sales respectively

DAMAC Properties was next at 15.8% of all off-plan transactions with Maldives in DAMAC Islands leading their sales success and recording 284 transactions, then was followed by Violet 3 (252) and Violet 4 (172) in DAMAC Hills 2, and DAMAC Sun City (132). Taking third place was Danube Properties securing a 5.3% market share with the highest volume of sales occurring at Diamondz (102) in JLT Embankment, Bayz 102 (99) in Business Bay, Oasiz 2 (69) and Oasiz 1 (63) in Dubai Silicon Oasis.

Source : Property Monitor

Historical Transactions

Sales Reassurance

In January 2025, the market share of initial developer sales decreased by 1.7%, falling to 61.4% versus resale transactions. The 12-month rolling average now stands at 63.6% for initial sales and 36.4% for resales, the latter of which, after reaching a high of 51.8% in April 2021, has been slowly trending back down towards the levels of 2019 and 2020, 33.2% and 33.8% respectively.

Dubai Land Residence Complex was the most popular master development for initial sales, where 7.9% (653) of all such transactions occurred. Samana Ibiza took the top spot for the month with 90 registrations, then was followed by Cove Edition II (80), Terra Tower (79), and Samana Park Meadows (52). Taking second place was DAMAC Hills 2 with 614 ales and a 7.5% market share. Sales in the community were dominated by Violet 3 recording 252 registrations and then was followed by Violet 4 (172), Violet 2 (55), and Elo 3 (24). Coming in third for January was Expo City claiming 6.4% market share with a total of 509 sales. Terra Heights was the standout in the community with 480 registrations, then was followed by Sidr Residences (43) and Sky Residences

The top master developments for residential resale transactions were Jumeirah Village Circle with 8.3% of such transactions spread across multiple projects, with the highest level of sales occurring at Binghatti Corner (14). This was followed by Business Bay with a 6.2% market share with Peninsula Three (13) being the highest transacted. Closing out the top 3 master developments for resale was Dubai Marina holding 5.1% of the market, with Marina Pinnacle recording 9 sales for the month.

Source : Property Monitor

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